Within the Poland Nation Report, Atradius forecasts exports will rise by as a lot as 9% in 2021 greater than compensating for the 1.9% contraction in 2020 and supported by resurging demand from the Eurozone. Imports into Poland are additionally anticipated to rebound by almost 10% in 2021 after a drop of almost 5% final yr.
The Polish report is a part of a sequence of nation, financial and buying and selling stories by Atradius to help companies buying and selling in abroad markets.
The economic system
The report reveals Poland’s financial contraction in 2020 as a result of coronavirus pandemic was 2.8%, considerably lower than the 6.4% common recession of EU member states. This is because of Poland’s financial efficiency being much less depending on exports in comparison with a few of its Central European friends whereas non-public consumption accounts for 58% of Polish GDP, decreasing its vulnerability to exterior shocks. Wanting forward, the economic system is forecast to rebound by 3.8% in 2021. Atradius forecasts non-public consumption to extend 3.5% in 2021 after reducing by the identical determine final yr, sustained by elevated authorities funds to households and pensioners alongside tax breaks whereas unemployment is anticipated to stage off.
As a response to the pandemic, complete stimulus measures supported many Polish companies, enabling them to maintain their money place. Nevertheless, this help is anticipated to run out this yr because the financial rebound features momentum. Atradius warns this might doubtlessly have an adversarial impact on enterprise liquidity and result in rising cost delays and insolvencies, significantly within the sectors most affected by the pandemic similar to transport, brick-and-mortar retail and companies. Atradius’ newest Insolvency Forecast stories Polish insolvencies are anticipated to develop by 7% this yr after remaining static in 2020.
Atradius’ overview of key industries in Poland stories enterprise efficiency and credit score threat in each the patron durables and metals/metal sectors have improved, resulting in outlook upgrades from ‘poor’ to ‘honest’. In client durables, gross sales have rebounded within the family home equipment and furnishings segments and the outlook can be extra optimistic because of an anticipated progress in family consumption. In the meantime, metals and metal recorded a requirement restoration in H2 of 2020, benefiting from restocking and resumption of manufacturing by finish clients.
Nevertheless, for another industries similar to development, machines, companies, textiles and transport, Atradius’ efficiency outlook stays ‘poor’ in the meanwhile. The report particulars that whereas development companies ought to profit from the deliberate public infrastructure investments, working margins stay very tight, with elevated credit score threat primarily for smaller gamers.
Within the transport phase, the credit score threat in passenger highway transport and highway freight transport stays excessive. In the meantime, within the service trade, many segments have suffered from pandemic-related lockdown measures, significantly lodges and catering, eating places, bars, leisure and cultural occasions, tourism, journey companies and tour operators. Regardless of extra fiscal help, Atradius warns that as much as 30% of those companies might not survive the pandemic disaster.
Richard Reynolds, head of strategic accounts for Atradius UK mentioned, “With a longtime buying and selling relationship, imports and exports between the UK and Poland elevated within the 4 years main as much as the pandemic and, regardless of being shaken over the previous yr, there are optimistic indicators of restoration.
“With a big home market and sometimes seen as a gateway into Central and Jap Europe, Poland is an fascinating proposition for companies seeking to commerce abroad significantly within the client durables and metals sectors. That mentioned, the pandemic has launched a big diploma of uncertainty into the worldwide commerce atmosphere which makes the related dangers much more acute.
“UK companies seeking to commerce abroad should guarantee they adapt to those dangers in addition to perceive the potential impression on the broader market and on their particular person clients. A sturdy threat administration technique and safety from non-payment and insolvencies is vital.”