The dwell odds at Smarkets counsel there’s a 73% likelihood that Boris Johnson will win tonight’s no-confidence vote, it was nearer to 50/50 when it was first introduced this morning however the chance of him successful it has since elevated.
Jeremy Hunt is the present favorite to succeed Johnson as Conservative chief, though his chance is barely 17%. Liz Truss (12%), Penny Mordaunt (11%) and Tom Tugendhat (11%) are the one different contenders with a double-figure likelihood.
Smarkets even have particular markets on if there shall be over or underneath 150 and 130 votes towards Johnson, and one on the total margin of tonight’s vote.
Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets stated, “The early betting at Smarkets has moved strongly in favour of Boris Johnson successful tonight’s no-confidence vote.
“The probabilities had been rated at nearly precisely 50/50 when Sir Graham Brady made his announcement and shortly moved in favour of the Prime Minister. He’s at present given a 73% likelihood of successful however these odds are more likely to fluctuate in what shall be an thrilling day for the betting markets.
“The dwell odds at Smarkets now counsel that round 140 MPs will vote towards Johnson, nicely wanting the 180 wanted to take away him from workplace.”